China blowing past Japan on autos may trigger change

If there’s any surprise over the fact that China dethroned Japan in 2023 to become the world’s top automaker it relates to how fast that happened.

Overall, auto exports jumped 58% last year from the prior one, topping 4.91 million units, says the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. Along with deploying its increasing strength in electric vehicles, China Inc managed to tap Russia’s sanctions-hit market with unexpected aplomb. Detroit is not thrilled, of course.

But the truly tantalizing question is how all this goes over in Japan, where, 12 years on, officials are still struggling to get their heads around China’s surpassing Japan in gross domestic product terms. That GDP changing of the guard happened, depending on your preferred data set, sometime between 2010 and 2012.

Since then, Japanese governments in succession have convinced themselves that GDP isn’t the key metric: It’s per capita income, in which Japan leads what’s now Asia’s biggest economy by nearly three times. Yet the blow to Japan’s collective psyche from losing the GDP crown was a devastating one.

Arguably, shock over trailing China helped Shinzo Abe retake the premiership in late 2012. Abe’s economic revival scheme wasn’t pitched as a beat-China strategy – but that’s precisely what his strategy to loosen labor markets, cut red tape, rekindle innovation, catalyze a startup boom and revive Tokyo’s role as Asia’s indispensable financial hub amounted to.

Years of Tokyo complacency since then have been good to China, enabling Xi Jinping’s economy to fill the void created by deflation-racked Japan. The 12 years since Abe’s Liberal Democratic Party returned to power have been a lost period for major economic retooling.

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