China and North Korea’s ‘friendship year’ need not be bad news for US allies

Amid growing tensions on the Korean peninsula, China yet again finds itself at the centre of geopolitical uncertainties, this time as both a bridge and a moat between North Korea and the international community.

The Korean Workers’ Party plenum last December discussed the “dangerous security environment” on the peninsula with leader Kim Jong-un denouncing the US-led anti-communist conflict and advocating for closer relations with “anti-imperialist independent countries”. In this regard, growing ties with China are indicative of North Korean attempts to challenge the position of the US and its partners in the region.

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While the US, Japan and South Korea have agreed on closer cooperation over the North Korean issue, the potential thaw in North Korea-Japan relations may lead to cracks in the trilateral alliance that Seoul fears could leave it worse off.

Given the current developments in the region, how China navigates its role in a complex security arrangement is pivotal for regional stability and peace. While North Korea would expect China to play the role of a loyal ally, it is highly unlikely that Beijing would isolate Seoul in the process. South Korea is a major trading partner of China and the two nations have interlocked supply chains. Isolating Seoul would risk trade disruptions that could severely affect China’s exports in the region.

In a scenario where abandoning either Pyongyang or Seoul appears to be off the cards, Beijing is most likely to play the role of mediator. Much like during the times of the Six-Party Talks, China is inclined to prioritise stability in the region. Beijing recognises the need for stable regimes to further its economic