Can Lai end deadlock in cross-Strait talks?

April 24, 2024

BEIJING – After winning the Taiwan leadership election in January with a 40 percent vote share, the second-lowest in the island’s electoral history, Lai Ching-te faces the first major test: his inaugural address on May 20. The speech will be closely observed and analyzed by major global players including the Chinese mainland and the United States that are eager to know what is Lai’s stance on cross-Strait relations.

Democratic Progressive Party leaders, from former island leader Chen Shui-bian to outgoing leader Tsai Ing-wen, have made some friendly gestures toward the mainland in their inaugural speeches.

In his inaugural speech in 2000, for example, Chen promised to not seek “Taiwan independence”, change the island’s name, write “one country on each side” of the Taiwan Strait into the “constitution” or alter the status quo via a referendum. The mainland’s response was to watch and wait, allowing Chen to fulfill his promises.

Tsai, on the other hand, vowed in 2016 to manage cross-Strait affairs according to the “constitution” and laws and regulations such as the “act governing relations between the people of the Taiwan area and the mainland area”, and avoid issuing sensitive statements such as those on “Taiwan independence” and the 1992 Consensus.

But both Chen and Tsai resorted to “Taiwan independence” to divert Taiwan residents’ attention from their failure to address the island’s problems, stirring up anti-mainland sentiments to secure their re-election. The DPP claims that its initial goodwill gesture was not reciprocated by the mainland, prompting it to seek “Taiwan independence”. But the fact is that the DPP never truly abandoned its “Taiwan independence” agenda.

So will Lai repeat his