Blocking Thailand’s solution to China’s ‘Malacca Dilemma’

Last month, two vessels struggling to push through the overcrowded Strait of Malacca collided, reviving interest in alternative trading routes to connect the world’s largest commercial centers.

Thailand has seized the initiative by advancing construction of a “land bridge” devised to enable goods to flow from the Andaman to the Gulf coast through a system of railroads, motorways and port infrastructure.

American development agencies cannot pass up on the opportunity to invest in a project that promises to shake up global commerce and offer China a solution to the so-called “Malacca Dilemma” – the possibility that the US or Indian navies would blockade or substantially interdict China’s sea lines at the narrow strait in a conflict scenario.

Recognizing that the United States or India may blockade the Malacca Strait in the particular event of a confrontation over Taiwan, Beijing is embracing Thailand’s invitation to circumvent this key channel.

Accordingly, two Chinese Communist Party delegations inspected the bridge’s evolving building sites in May this year. Since Beijing already benefits from several railways and roads running south into Thailand, it will have more leverage in deciding the volume and composition of the cargo traversing Bangkok.

Washington is not out of the race, however. US ambassador to Thailand, Robert Godec, was briefed on the project last October during the early stages of its conception.

Prominent American companies ranging from Amazon to Oracle expressed interest shortly thereafter. US development agencies will need to bring private companies into the negotiation room before Chinese investors present more competitive offers.

Indeed, one of the reasons why Thailand has pitched the project so