Better defending Taiwan against China’s gray zone assault

This article was originally published by Pacific Forum. It is republished with permission.

On August 26, 2024, a Shaanxi Y-9 reconnaissance plane (運-9運輸機) from the People’s Liberation Army intruded into Japanese airspace east of the Danjo Islands in the East China Sea for the first time.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of China (Taiwan) and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan both protested and condemned the act, criticizing Beijing for violating the sovereignty of other nations and destabilizing regional peace.

This latest incursion reflected broader People’s Republic of China (PRC) gray zone tactics, a non-peaceful means it uses to assert sovereignty over Taiwan unilaterally.

Gray zone tactics include behavior-changing conduct and modifying the balance between hostile parties. One might use non-kinetic means to incentivize the other to conform to perceived expectations and challenge security norms.

Intensifying PRC military incursions

In 2016, during Xi Jinping’s first term, the PRC escalated its use of gray zone tactics to coerce Taiwan and neighboring countries. These tactics span the framework known as MIDFIELD, which encompasses military, informational, diplomatic, financial, intelligence, economic, law, and development strategies.

Such conduct violates the rules-based maritime order across the Taiwan Strait and threatens the security balance in the Indo-Pacific. Since September 2020, Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense has systematically tracked and publicized PRC incursions.

Militarily, the PRC has maintained daily incursions against Taiwanese water, air and near-shore islands. The peak PRC incursion occurred on September 18, 2023, when 103 PLA aircraft intruded into the Taiwan Air Defense