Australia’s fears over US submarine supply cut unwarranted as Aukus has options to boost deterrence

The US announced last week it would halve the number of submarines to be built next year, throwing its commitment towards Australia in their supply agreement into doubt.

Defence Minister Richard Marles said Aukus partners are still working to help Australia acquire the submarines. Former Australian prime minister Malcolm Turnbull, however, said Canberra had been “mugged by reality” over Washington’s wavering position.

Under their agreement, the US has pledged to supply at least three Virginia-class submarines to Australia in the 2030s. The vessels are a stopgap before nuclear-powered submarines to be built in Adelaide enter into service in the 2040s.

Also known as the SSN-774 class, the Virginia class is the latest category of nuclear-powered fast-attack submarines in service with the US Navy.

Elizabeth Buchanan, an expert associate of the National Security College at the Australian National University, said the US administration’s budget cut for the production of Virginia submarines from two to one was just a starting point.

“This isn’t the final word on the funding front,” said Buchanan, adding that “as a customer” seeking to acquire the submarines, Australia should expect that things could change during negotiation over a decade.

“Counting submarines for counting sake is short-sighted,” Buchanan said, noting that there is no reason why Washington would not sell the submarines to Canberra.

“It is in the US interests to have more Virginias in the region, it frees up the US Navy to not have to pick between North Atlantic waters and the Indo-Pacific.”

Australia should be thinking strategically about how it can work with the US and other like-minded states by utilising its strategic location to attract more defence vessels to