As Vietnam’s Russian arms supplies dry up, who will it turn to for weapons?

The Southeast Asian nation placed no new major orders last year, according to figures released last week by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute defence think tank – despite it having an estimated annual weapons-procurement budget of more than US$1 billion.

“Diversification is often easier said than done because it requires moving away from old established ties and building new trusted relationships,” said Prashanth Parameswaran, a fellow at the Wilson Centre think tank in Washington and founder of the weekly Asean Wonk newsletter.

“Vietnam will likely continue to put its eggs in more baskets, with a more diverse mix of countries that include partners in Asia and Europe, beyond just the US.”

But the figure last year was negligible by comparison, according to the institute. In fact, 2023 saw Vietnam import the fewest weapons since 2007, by volume.

Nguyen The Phuong, a Vietnam defence specialist at the University of New South Wales in Australia, said an important prong of the Southeast Asian nation’s military modernisation effort was constructing a strong, independent and dual-use defence-industrial complex, with the help of military-owned conglomerates and the private sector.

Reducing reliance on arms imports is a priority in the near term, Phuong said – at least for non-sophisticated weapon platforms used by ground forces.

“More advanced weapons are a problem, as Vietnam relies on Russia for purchasing tanks, warships and military aircraft,” he said. “But this issue is not easy to overcome, especially with the war in Ukraine predicted to last for several more years.”

One factor weighing on the minds of Vietnam’s defence planners is the performance of big-ticket Russian weapon platforms on a modern battlefield,