As Philippines’ inflation woes deepen, is Marcos Jnr in danger of history repeating itself?

President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr will deliver his third State of the Nation Address (Sona) for the Philippines, but the true picture of his term at nearly the halfway mark can be gleaned in the carpeted and newly marbled halls of Congress and its surrounding streets rather than in his glowing report card.

Anticipating huge street protests, authorities have tightened security outside the Congress complex, where Marcos Jnr is due to speak on Monday, with the number of policemen deployed set to quadruple to 22,000 from 5,000 last year.

The arrangement was confirmed before Vice-President Sara Duterte-Carpio’s announcement on July 11 of her intention to snub the Sona. “No, I will not attend. I am appointing myself as the designated survivor.”

Her remark caused authorities to further tighten security since it was a reference to the Netflix political thriller Designated Survivor starring Canadian actor Kiefer Sutherland. In the hit series, Sutherland plays the role of US cabinet official Thomas Kirkman, who is the designated survivor for the State of the Union address by the US president. Kirkman assumes the highest political office after an explosion kills the president and all other officials ahead of Kirkman in the line of succession.

It also underscores the increasingly strained ties between two of the country’s most powerful political clans.

Duterte-Carpio’s resignation as education secretary on June 19 has sparked speculation since the daughter of former president Rodrigo Duterte said in January that she planned to run in next year’s mid-term elections. She did not explain her comment then since her term as vice-president – and that of the president – will only expire in 2028.

Duterte-Carpio then floated the idea that her father,