As Myanmar junta holds out on elections, peace talks with rebels, could China rethink its support?

China could be increasingly perceiving Myanmar’s junta as “the main problem”, with generals in the war-torn Southeast Asian country unwilling to hold talks with resistance forces as urged by Beijing.

Observers warn that if an election is held next year in Myanmar as promised, it is likely to be incomplete and “far from representative”.

Last Wednesday, Myanmar’s military government extended a state of emergency for another six months, according to state media, on grounds it would give the junta more time to put together population data for voter lists.

Since the coup in February 2021, General Min Aung Hlaing had repeatedly promised an election, saying that the 2020 poll was riddled with widespread voter fraud. Last month, he promised a free and fair election next year.

Upon seizing power, the military put the country under emergency rule for a year and had extended its rule every six months. Meanwhile, the protest movement has morphed into an armed rebellion that has widened and is now posing a threat to the regime.

On Monday, the junta said it had lost communications with commanders of the Northeast Command in the city of Lashio, a strategically important army headquarters in the country’s northeast and the second-largest city in Shan State.

Noting that this was the sixth extension of the emergency, Jason Tower, country director for the Burma programme at the United States Institute of Peace think tank, said the decision was widely expected.

“[It was also] part of Min Aung Hlaing’s reasoning for appointing himself president several weeks ago,” Tower said, adding that the Myanmar strongman was under increasing regional pressure, especially from China, to hold an election.

Last month, Min Aung Hlaing replaced Myint Swe as acting