As Indonesia’s presidential election nears, debates won’t make or break Prabowo’s prospects

The fifth and final debate, between the presidential candidates, will be held on February 4.

If the debates significantly influenced voter decisions, Prabowo would probably be trailing his opponents. According to Drone Emprit, a website analysing citizens’ social media posts, Anies received the most positive reactions (64 per cent and 76 per cent) in the two presidential debates held so far, followed by Ganjar (58 per cent and 72 per cent) and Prabowo (39 per cent and 40 per cent).

Indikator Politik’s latest survey of voters from January 10 to 16 found that the Prabowo-Gibran duo had the support of 48.6 per cent of respondents, Anies and Muhaimin 24.2 per cent, and Ganjar and Mahfud 21.6 per cent. With this significant lead, Prabowo and Gibran could secure over 50 per cent of the popular vote, winning the February 14 election outright, and would not need to contest a second round of voting. However, to do this, they would need to introduce something exceptional.

Debates alone are unlikely to cut it. If they did, Prabowo’s lacklustre performance and Gibran’s impressive showing would been reflected in fluctuations in the pair’s approval ratings. Drone Emprit’s analysis revealed that Gibran earned the most positive public reactions, at 70 per cent, after the first vice-presidential debate. Despite this, the pair’s popularity remained stagnant from December 1 to January 6.

This stance could sway swing voters, who constitute nearly 30 per cent of the electorate. The CSIS survey also highlighted the Prabowo-Gibran pair’s higher likelihood of electoral success in various regions.

By far the most impactful factor enhancing Prabowo’s presidential election prospects is his strategic choice of Widodo’s son, Gibran, as his running mate,