Analysis: As a Biden-Trump presidential rematch looms, who might China prefer as the winner and why?

SINGAPORE: As the United States marches towards a repeat contest between President Joe Biden and predecessor Donald Trump, China is clear-eyed that regardless of who enters the Oval Office, America’s drive to contain Beijing is all but set to continue, say analysts.

Even so, observers note that how such efforts play out will differ significantly depending on who takes charge of the world’s largest economy, with Mr Biden set to continue leaning on current measures and regional partnerships, while Mr Trump is likely to go at it unilaterally and unpredictably.

While China’s preference is shrouded in secrecy, analysts believe it could be leaning slightly towards Mr Trump, especially considering how Beijing is now armed with experience in how both men operate, having experienced both their presidencies.

“I suspect the Chinese leadership prefers a Trump presidency —  simply because they believe that Trump will alienate other countries, including the US’ allies and partners,” Professor Donald Low from the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology (HKUST) told CNA.

Either way, what China expects as a baseline from America’s next leader is that issues deemed to be red lines, particularly the notion of Taiwan independence, are not crossed, experts note.

With China also lashing out publicly and accusing the US of trying to suppress its rise, experts warn that it’s a rocky road ahead for the relationship between the two powers. 

In a sign of the possible tensions leading up to the US election, Beijing has raised the prospect of retribution after TikTok's potential US ban took a step closer to reality.

The Nov 5 US presidential election is set to replay the 2020 poll when Mr Biden and Mr Trump faced off for the top job. Mr Biden