A third of Ukrainians would yield land for peace – but it’s not so simple

According to a recent opinion poll taken by the Kiev International Institute of Sociology, almost one-third of Ukrainians are now prepared to make territorial concessions to Russia if this brings the Russian war of aggression to a swift end and preserves their country’s independence. But more than half of the population rejects the idea of giving up territory for peace.

This may give an impression of a solid majority against concessions, but the increase among those willing to compromise is dramatic. It had remained at or below 10% until May 2023. But with relentless bad news from the battlefront since the failure of last year’s spring and summer offensive, it has risen steadily to the current 32%.

The growing war-weariness of increasing numbers of Ukrainians is unlikely to be reversed anytime soon given that Russia continues to advance along the almost 1,200km-long frontline, especially in the critical Donetsk sector. Although, it must be noted, there have been no significant strategic breakthroughs – and the advances have come at tremendous cost in terms of lives on both sides.

Even if a majority of Ukrainians were eventually willing to trade some territory for peace, it’s not clear what a credible peace plan would look like.

Ukraine has not officially abandoned its idea of a global coalition of states pressuring Russia to end its aggression and withdraw from all the Ukrainian territory it has illegally occupied since 2014. But this looks like a vanishingly slim prospect.

So there needs to be a rethink of how Moscow and Kiev can reach a mutually acceptable peace agreement that will stick. It’s inconceivable this could happen without the active engagement of Beijing and Washington, and possibly a larger contact group of