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Contrary to a meme that’s popular among Western policy analysts, there is no Chinese “export surge.” China’s exports to developed markets have stagnated for years, but have doubled to the Global South.
The US auto industry overcharges consumers for motor vehicle parts, while pricing vehicles outside the range of most US households. That keeps profit margins high on new vehicles. Sales of new passenger cars and trucks are stagnant, but the industry compensates by selling expensive parts to consumers who keep their vehicles on the road longer. The cost of a new car has risen by about 40% since 1991, while the cost of repair parts has nearly doubled, as the above chart shows. The cost of auto repair, meanwhile, has tripled.
China’s exports in April surged towards the Global South while shrinking in developed markets, following a pattern of geographic divergence that began four years ago.
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During the coming decades, it may become increasingly difficult to induce Americans to help defend any of the increasingly numerous countries with birth rates far too low to replace their population, even if a country in question is democratically governed.