Will the Israel-Hezbollah fragile peace hold?

A ceasefire deal came into effect between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Hezbollah in the early hours of November 26, bringing two months of hostilities in Lebanon to an end. The country’s main roads have since then been jammed as people rush back to what remains of their homes in the south.

The outgoing US president, Joe Biden, said the agreement is “designed to be a permanent cessation of hostilities.” He added: “What is left of Hezbollah and other terrorist organizations will not be allowed — will — I emphasize — will not be allowed to threaten the security of Israel again.” But what are the prospects of the deal actually holding?

Hezbollah continues to claim that it defeated the Israeli military in Lebanon and says its forces will ensure that the IDF adheres to the ceasefire. Israel, in a similar fashion, has claimed the right to respond to violations and has warned Lebanese citizens that they should stay away from frontline areas for now.

Hours before the deal came into effect, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said: “If Hezbollah violates the agreement and tries to arm itself, we will attack. If it tries to rebuild terrorist infrastructure near the border, we will attack. If it launches a rocket, if it digs a tunnel, if it brings in a truck carrying rockets, we will attack.” Indeed, Israeli tanks opened fire on “suspects” arriving with vehicles in a number of areas in southern Lebanon on Thursday.

But, while fragile, the truce may well last. John Strawson, an expert in Middle Eastern politics at the University of East London, says Israel’s military has inflicted immense damage on the group’s military organization. The fact that Hezbollah has entered a ceasefire with Israel at all, he argues, highlights