Why China risks US sanctions arming Russia: Survival

US secretary of state Antony Blinken fired a warning salvo toward China during a G7 foreign ministers’ meeting on the Italian island of Capri on April 20. The United States’ top diplomat described China as a “prime contributor” of weapons-related technology to Russia, saying Beijing was fueling the “biggest threat to European security since the end of the Cold War.”

Blinken gave further details when he landed in Beijing this week: While China has complied with US requests not to sell arms to Russia during the Ukraine war, the list of items it sells that could have military use is extensive. They include semiconductors, drones, helmets, vests, machine tools and radios.

Apparently, the Chinese resupply of the Russian industrial complex also undermines Ukrainian security. And unfortunately for China, Chinese support of the Kremlin’s war effort is likely to earn Chinese firms sanctions from the US government.

Why is Beijing aiding Moscow so ardently even when imminent US sanctions are likely to aggravate its problems with an already weak economy? One word: survival.

China’s need for allies

China realizes that if it wishes to break the US monopoly on power, it can’t go about it alone. Aside from requiring a strong Russia to help reform the US-dominated international system, China needs Russia for its long-term survival.

There is a famous Chinese idiom: “Once the lips are gone, the teeth will feel the cold.” (The meaning is that when two things are interdependent, the fall of one will affect the other.) Right now, the West is dealing with the Russian rogue state. But if Russia falls, Beijing realizes, the West could consolidate its resources to deal with the “Chinese threat.” Therefore, Beijing must aid Moscow.

At present,