Why 2024 was the ‘most violent, dangerous’ point in Philippine-China ties, and what’s next

The year 2024 marked the “most violent” and “most dangerous moment” for both Beijing and Manila in their long-running South China Sea dispute, according to several experts interviewed by This Week in Asia.

All of them agreed that China was the hands-down winner in gaining control over more geographical features in the contested waterway, but most added that Beijing had suffered “reputational damage” in the process.

The Philippines lost control of yet another feature – Sabina Shoal – but was able to harness multinational support and military aid to increase its defence posture in the troubled waterway, they added.

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Chinese and Philippine ships clash in first incident under Beijing’s new coast guard law

The watershed moment in the dispute occurred on June 17, “marking an unprecedented escalation” and “the most dangerous moment”, said Professor Hu Bo, director of Peking University’s Center for Maritime Strategy Studies and the South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative.

Hu said the China Coast Guard “took lawful measures” to intercept, inspect by boarding and expel six Philippine vessels that attempted to deliver supplies to BRP Sierra Madre, a crumbling Philippine warship grounded on Ayungin or Second Thomas Shoal that China calls Renai Jiao.

“Multiple collisions occurred between vessels from both sides, leading to close confrontations far exceeding the intensity of previous stand-offs, making it the most severe friction in the South China Sea in the past decade.” he posted on July 12 on the SCSPI website weeks after the clash.

“This incident generated significant attention worldwide,” Hu said.

It was “the most violent incident” between both countries in the South China Sea, leading to a Filipino sailor losing his