What Ukrainians say about readiness for ceasefire and concessions

A US-Ukraine accord on a ceasefire proposal has put the notion of a negotiated end to the three-year war on the agenda, and in the hands of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

But even before Moscow responds, it’s pretty clear where the parties stand. Breaking a prior taboo against negotiations involving territorial concessions, the US has suggested Ukraine must cede land in any permanent deal, whereas President Volodymyr Zelensky has stated repeatedly that he will never yield sovereignty over Ukraine’s territory.

Meanwhile, Russia has demanded that Ukraine renounce its aspiration to join NATO and accept restrictions on its military. But at present, Kyiv looks unlikely to gain the security guarantees it seeks from the US before contemplating such terms.

What is talked about less is what the Ukrainian people are willing to accept for peace. And while any armistice will likely be dictated by guns, territorial gains and great power geopolitics, it will be in large part down to ordinary Ukrainians to shape what happens afterward. An ugly peace may be accepted by a war-weary population. But if it has little local legitimacy and acceptance, peace is likely to be unsustainable in the long run.

We have tracked public opinion in Ukraine from before the war and during the course of the conflict.

It is an imperfect exercise; most polling in wartime Ukraine is by mobile phone and depends upon those with service who are willing to participate. Many people, especially in the country’s south and east, do not want to answer sensitive questions out of concern for themselves and relatives, some in occupied territories and Russia.

Those who do respond may give guarded responses. Some are mindful of wartime censorship, while others are