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US air superiority vs China dissolving in plain sight

Emerging ultra-long-range counter-air missiles and long-range precision strike capabilities are poised to redefine air superiority, forcing the US and its allies to rethink strategies against increasingly sophisticated adversaries like China.

In a December 2024 report to US Congress, the Department of the Air Force said that adversaries are set to field counter-air weapons guided by space-based sensors with ranges exceeding 1,000 miles (1,600 kilometers), creating unprecedented threats to traditional air operations.

The report highlights China’s investment in long-range precision systems, including intercontinental hypersonic vehicles and a diverse arsenal of air, land and sea-launched missiles. Those weapons, supported by advanced space-based targeting, pose risks to key assets such as tankers, which have traditionally operated with impunity.

Further, the report says that by 2050, forward airbases and fixed sites will become increasingly vulnerable to continuous precision strikes, requiring significant changes in US Air Force strategies. It emphasizes that counter-air threats will deny sanctuaries at any range, forcing reliance on episodic air superiority and distributed capabilities.

The report underscores the necessity of integrating space-based surveillance and targeting systems while addressing the challenge of adversary space-based weapons, including potential hypersonic glide vehicles (HGV) or nuclear-capable systems.

It says that the US Air Force must modernize its concepts, technologies and force structures to remain effective and counter these evolving threats, which will heavily rely on space and information dominance.

In March 2024, the South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that Chinese scientists have

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