Ukrainians increasingly willing to cede land for peace: survey

The Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky, is trying his best to shake up the dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine war. He recently undertook a major cabinet reshuffle in which he replaced no fewer than nine ministers, including his foreign minister, Dmytro Kuleba.

Announcing the changes, Zelensky said he wanted his government to be “more active” in pressing for aid from its Western allies.

These cabinet changes came as Ukraine pressed ahead with its offensive in the Kursk oblast in Russia. Zelensky has said that holding some Russian territory will give Kiev leverage for future territorial exchange negotiations with Russia.

And, while criticism of Zelensky’s gamble has increased as Ukraine’s position in the Donbas in the east of the country has deteriorated, seeing Ukrainian soldiers turn the table on Russia has undeniably given Ukrainians a morale boost.

Ukrainians needed this. As the war has endured and its costs mounted, morale and public health have suffered.

We have tracked Ukrainian sentiment for years. In June and July 2024, in cooperation with the Kiev International Institute for Sociology (KIIS), we conducted a telephone public opinion survey of 2,200 respondents representative of the adult population of government-controlled areas of Ukraine. This was to follow up on a survey from October 2022.

We should treat wartime polls with caution. But our survey findings suggest people are worried about war weariness among their fellow Ukrainians. It also suggests that there is growing, if reluctant, support for negotiations and territorial concessions.

Open to compromise

Attitudes among Ukrainians toward territorial concessions have also started to shift – but only slightly. Most people have opposed giving up land since