Trump win would negatively impact New Zealand foreign policy

One of the political ironies of the race for the White House is that the foreign policy interests of New Zealand’s center-right government are probably best served by Democratic candidate Kamala Harris winning.

Since the end of World War II, all New Zealand governments have supported multilateralism and an international rules-based order enshrined in the institutions of the United Nations.

The relationship with the United States has reflected that, and tends to outlast the periodic fluctuations associated with changes in government and policy in Wellington or Washington.

New Zealand’s current National-led coalition inherited close relations with the US, too. American visitor numbers were second only to those of Australians last year. The US is our third largest export market. And the two countries remain strategically linked within the Five Eyes intelligence sharing arrangement.

Nevertheless, one of the key foreign policy goals of the coalition is to strengthen alignment with traditional allies such as the US. Given the very different worldviews of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, the November 5 election will have a large bearing on how successful any push for closer relations with the US can be.

Closer relations in the balance

On the one hand, Republican candidate Trump is opposed to multilateral institutions, unless they explicitly serve US national interests. And he wants to reverse the impact of globalization by constraining immigration, free trade and global governance.

Nationalist slogans like “America First” promise a return to a so-called golden era of patriotism and sovereignty: a top-down world where the greatest power of all is unencumbered and free to assert its dominance.

On the other hand, Harris would seem