Trump’s Ukraine mineral deal won’t be easy to extract

Ukraine’s mineral wealth has been a key factor in its negotiations with the US as the two countries work out details for a ceasefire agreement in Ukraine’s war with Russia.

After a rocky start to those negotiations, officials from the US and Ukraine announced an agreement on March 11, 2025. The US would resume support and intelligence sharing with Ukraine, with some conditions, and both agreed to work toward “a comprehensive agreement for developing Ukraine’s critical mineral resources to expand Ukraine’s economy and guarantee Ukraine’s long-term prosperity and security.”

The initial announcement from Ukraine’s government stated that critical minerals would also “offset the cost of American assistance,” but that line was removed from the joint statement. Getting Russia to agree to a ceasefire would be the next step.

There’s no doubt that Ukraine has an abundance of critical minerals, or that these resources will be essential to its postwar reconstruction. But what exactly do those resources include, and how abundant and accessible are they?

The war has severely limited access to data about Ukraine’s natural resources. However, as a geoscientist with experience in resource evaluation, I have been reading technical reports, many of them behind paywalls, to understand what’s at stake. Here’s what we know.

Ukraine’s minerals fuel industries and militaries

Ukraine’s mineral resources are concentrated in two geologic provinces. The larger of these, known as the Ukrainian Shield, is a wide belt running through the center of the country, from the northwest to the southeast. It consists of very old, metamorphic and granitic rocks.

A multibillion-year history of fault movement and volcanic activity created a diversity of minerals