Trump 2.0: a grand bargain with Putin and hard pivot to China

With a resounding victory in the US presidential election, Donald Trump can now claim a sweeping mandate to implement his agenda, both foreign and domestic.

Crucially, the result shows you should never bet against self-interest, either for politicians or for American voters prepared to disregard the most flawed of all characters in the hope he will “fix” their problems.

The guardrails that constrained Trump’s first term – a hostile Senate, opponents in the Republican Party and a public service devoted to serve the nation rather than an individual – have either been swept away or will likely soon be bent to his will.

The global implications of a confident and unfettered Trump 2.0 will depend very much on what foreign policy path he charts and who he decides to appoint to key positions.

Among those, we then need to watch who is selected to do his bidding and who will replace them when they inevitably fall out of favour. Early lists of potential appointees include:

• Marco Rubio and Richard Grenell, who have been mentioned as potential secretary of state
• Kash Patel, mooted as CIA director
• Mike Pompeo, the former secretary of state and CIA director during Trump’s first term in office, who may end up at the Pentagon as defense secretary.

Even Mike Flynn, Trump’s first national security adviser, who resigned just 22 days into his tenure after lying about contacts with Russia’s ambassador to the US, has been mentioned in discussions about senior roles.

So, too, has the self-styled strategic policy expert Elbridge Colby, a former US Defense Department official.

Trump will demand unswerving loyalty from his appointees while claiming all the credit for their work. But, as he ages, he is also likely to rely heavily on them to take