The Pacific in 2025: Navigating the shared challenges

January 8, 2025

JAKARTA – Vanuatu’s devastating earthquake and dramatic political developments in Tonga and New Caledonia at the end of 2024 set the tone for the coming year in the Pacific. The incoming Trump administration adds another level of uncertainty, ranging from the geostrategic competition with China and the region’s resulting militarization through to the United States response to climate change. And decolonization for a number of territories in the Pacific will remain in focus as the region’s largest country celebrates its 50th anniversary of independence.

The deadly 7.3 earthquake that struck Port Vila on Dec. 17 has left Vanuatu reeling. As the country moves from response to recovery, the full impacts of the damage will come to light. The economic hit will be significant, with some businesses announcing that they will not open until well into the New Year or later. Amid the physical carnage there’s Vanuatu’s political turmoil, with a snap general election triggered in November before the disaster struck, which will proceed on Jan. 16.

On Christmas Eve, a new prime minister was elected in Tonga. ‘Aisake Valu Eke is a veteran politician, who has previously served as minister of finance. He succeeded Siaosi Sovaleni who resigned suddenly after a prolonged period of tension between his office and the Tongan royal family. Eke takes the reins as Tonga heads toward national elections, due before the end of November. He will likely want to keep things stable and low key between now and then.

In New Caledonia, the resignation of the Calédonie Ensemble party, also on Christmas Eve, led to the fall of the French territory’s government. After last year’s violence and civil disorder, which crippled the economy but stopped