The nations likely to win, not lose, from Trump’s tariffs

Donald Trump’s return to the White House brings with it the high likelihood of renewed tariffs, a cornerstone of his “America First” agenda.

While his critics see protectionism, others see an opportunity—an aggressive strategy to rebalance global trade and fortify American manufacturing. But as in his first term, Trump’s tariffs would likely ripple far beyond US borders, creating fresh opportunities for countries ready to step up and fill the gaps.

For Vietnam, India, Mexico, Malaysia and Thailand, Trump’s approach could be a game-changer. These nations are well-positioned to benefit from the global realignment that would come with new tariffs, as companies accelerate diversification efforts and shift supply chains away from China.

If Trump builds on his prior successes with a more refined strategy, these nations could ride the wave of economic transformation to new heights.

1. Vietnam: Trade war winner

Few countries capitalized on Trump’s 2018-19 trade war with China as effectively as Vietnam. As American tariffs hit Chinese goods, companies scrambled to relocate manufacturing, and Vietnam quickly became a top destination. Its combination of low labor costs, strategic proximity to China, and strong trade agreements with the US made it an ideal alternative.

If Trump reintroduces tariffs, Vietnam could again attract manufacturers seeking to bypass higher costs in China. From electronics to textiles, its export base is well-prepared to meet American demand. Trump’s proven willingness to strike tailored trade deals could further enhance Vietnam’s status as a preferred partner.

2. India: a strategic ally

Trump’s first term saw a strengthening of US-India ties, driven by a shared desire to counterbalance China. His