The limits of deterrence

September 19, 2024

MANILA – A Filipino-American archaeologist some years back shared a theory he was developing, which argued that our ancient ancestors made no distinctions between land and sea as far as territory was concerned. This is in contrast to us, where we view the land as ending at the sea, with the sea as a kind of intervening expanse between islands. I’ve often wondered if there isn’t a kind of residual, ancestral memory of this in the way we approach issues such as the West Philippine Sea which have resulted in our being at loggerheads with China. The latest example of this is the Escoda Shoal, where, after five literally bruising months, our coast guard has withdrawn BRP Teresa Magbanua, with a replacement due at some unspecified date.

At first blush, who stays anchored in a spot of ocean seems a rather strange way to dispute a territory. We forget that for China, anchoring is only the first step: after anchoring a flotilla in a disputed place, other vessels can follow with the ultimate aim of creating an artificial island where there was none before. This then allows China to plant a flag on an island of its own making, and by so doing, expand the associated areas of the seas that can be claimed by China according to international law: moving the goal posts, to speak, each time.

Having no such capabilities, all we can do is assert our exclusive economic zone (EEZ), as measured from our existing islands while invoking the right to assert it should be measured from our continental shelf; in either case, our claims and the basis for it in law stems from places that have existed as part of our territory as long as international law has existed. China, on the other hand, is constantly redefining its definition