The economic silver lining of disarming Hezbollah

It’s not just Israel that wants to see Hezbollah disarmed.

After a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah went into effect on November 27, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is expected to hold its annual summit in Kuwait on December 1 to announce that their reconstruction aid money in Lebanon will be incumbent on Hezbollah’s disarmament. A similar GCC condition of disarming Hamas will likely be attached to rebuilding Gaza.

Since Hezbollah launched its war on Israel on October 8, 2023, the Jewish state has turned the Iran-backed militia from a regional army into a local militia. As part of the ceasefire, an enforcement mechanism was negotiated to guarantee that Hezbollah is emasculated and remains suppressed.

If all goes according to plan and the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) demilitarizes the area between the Litani River and the Lebanon-Israeli border and takes firm control of Lebanese ports of entry to prevent Hezbollah’s rearmament, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will leave south Lebanon by late January.

When 1.2 million displaced south Lebanon citizens return to their villages, most of them will find their houses have been razed and will be in desperate need of reconstruction aid.

In the 2006 war with Israel, Lebanon lost a fraction of the housing units it did this time. Back then, the Lebanese and Iranian economies were performing relatively well. And with generous aid from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, and Qatar, Lebanon was able to reconstruct quickly and thus diffuse a ticking socioeconomic bomb.

But the Gulf today suffers from donor fatigue. Not only have these wealthy nations been repeatedly summoned to foot hefty reconstruction bills, but they are only consulted after wars end,