Recalibrations in the preset India-US-China triangular equation

This article was originally published by Pacific Forum. It is republished with permission.

The triangular equation between India, the United States and China has witnessed radical shifts over the past several decades. Considering such long-term trends helps achieve clarity in viewing the emerging course of the triangular dynamics amid fast-paced changes, such as Donald Trump’s return to the world stage and a thawing of tensions between Delhi and Beijing.

During the Cold War, the initial euphoria over Asian solidarity, bringing India and China together, gave way to territorial conflict, resulting in a prolonged freeze in their ties.

While India’s relationship with the US remained tenuous during this period due to ideological, developmental, and geopolitical differences, China’s volte-face in its relationship trajectory with the US — from enmity to partnership — aimed to counter their common adversary in the Soviet Union.

Essentially, Indo-US and the Sino-US ties during the Cold War were highly dependent on the three countries’ respective equations with the Soviet Union.

Hence, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, there arose a phase of convergence between the three; with the rapidly globalizing world order driving the trio increasingly closer through economic interdependence.

Eventually, the rising assertiveness and revisionist signals coming from China resulted in widening mistrust in its relations with both India and the US. This played a vital role in bringing India and the US together, leading to an increasing level of synchronization in their policies vis-à-vis China.

Ever since the US and China established diplomatic ties, the two countries sought to interlink their economies in a tight embrace based on their