Rare earth piece in Ukraine peace deal puzzle

Trump’s confirmed interest in Ukraine’s critical and rare earth minerals is being interpreted by some as beneficial for President Volodymyr Zelensky amid uncertainty about the new US president’s commitment to Ukraine. One of the points from Zelensky’s so-called “Victory Plan” calls for letting his country’s allies to extract its minerals.

New Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently warned about the strategic advantage that China derives from its control over the world’s rare earth mineral supply chain so he might have influenced Trump’s views on the issue in relation to Ukraine.

US Senator Lindsey Graham raised awareness of Ukraine’s rare earth riches during his trip there last June, after which he claimed that Ukraine was sitting on US$10-12 trillion worth of such wealth.

Trump 2.0’s foreign policy focus on more muscularly containing China in all ways predictably predisposed him to appreciate the abovementioned point from Zelensky’s “Victory Plan.”

The problem, though, is that the bulk of Ukraine’s critical mineral wealth is under Russian control while Ukrainian forces continue to retreat.

At the same time, US Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg’s suggestion that Ukraine needs to hold long-delayed elections was seen as reflecting Trump’s interest in brokering a ceasefire, after which martial law can be lifted, the elections could be held, and a new Ukrainian government can then begin peace talks.

This expectation contrasts with what Trump said a few days later about his interest in Ukraine’s (largely Russian-controlled) rare earth mineral deposits and the attendant possibility for proxy escalation of the war.

Instead of abandoning his efforts to freeze the Ukrainian conflict by doubling down on military