Questioning China’s ability to actually fight
China’s military may be modernizing rapidly, but deep-rooted structural flaws, political control and a lack of combat experience could limit its battlefield effectiveness in a potential war with the US and its allies.
Last month, the RAND Corporation think tank released a report questioning the combat readiness of China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) despite its breakneck modernization.
RAND argues that while the PLA boasts advanced weaponry and the world’s largest navy, it prioritizes upholding Chinese Communist Party (CCP) rule over actually preparing for war.
The report highlights systemic issues, including promotions based on loyalty over merit, ideological training over combat realism and centralized decision-making that hinders battlefield adaptability.
RAND compares the PLA’s modernization to historical cases where military strength failed to ensure battlefield success, citing the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War and the 1979 Sino-Vietnamese War. The report suggests China’s military reforms remain slow and incomplete, emphasizing deterrence and political control over operational effectiveness.
A separate RAND report examines the PLA’s dual challenge of demographic decline and modernization. It notes that while China’s shrinking population poses long-term concerns, the PLA still has a significantly larger youth pool than the US. However, poor recruitment incentives, unattractive service conditions and competition from the private sector hinder efforts to attract elite talent.
Cultural barriers, such as military service’s low social status and a conscription-based model, further complicate China’s military modernization. Despite major investments, the PLA struggles to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping’s vision for a