Peace prospects slim unless Europe grips reality of Trump’s world
When EU leaders gathered for their first ever meeting solely dedicated to defense issues on February 3, in Brussels, the war in Ukraine was uppermost on their minds. Yet, three weeks before the third anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion, Ukraine is only the tip of an iceberg of security challenges that Europe faces.
War on a scale not seen in Europe since 1945 has returned to the continent. Russian sabotage of everything from critical infrastructure to elections is at levels reminiscent of the cold war. And the future of the EU’s most important defense alliance, NATO, is uncertain.
In light of these challenges alone, let alone the ongoing instability in the Middle East, western Balkans and south Caucasus, it’s hard to disagree with the observation by EU council president António Costa that “Europe needs to assume greater responsibility for its own defense.”
But it’s hardly a groundbreaking statement. And at the end of proceedings, the outcome of what was ultimately only an informal meeting was underwhelmingly summarised by Costa as “progress in our discussions on building the Europe of defense”.
This does not bode well for Ukraine. US support is unlikely to continue at the levels reached during the final months of the Biden administration. In fact, ongoing debates in the White House on Ukraine policy have already caused some disruption to arms shipments from Washington to Kyiv.
Building blocs
If there is a silver lining for Ukraine here, it is Trump’s continuous search for a good deal. His latest idea is that Ukraine could pay for US support with favorable concessions on rare earths and, potentially, other strategic resources.
These would include preferential deals to supply the US with titanium, iron ore and