Myanmar’s NUG cooks the books on resistance success

As Myanmar enters its fourth year of post-coup civil war, claims of imminent insurgent victory abound.

The Arakan Army (AA) and Kachin Independence Army (KIA) have made historic battlefield gains in Rakhine and Kachin states, respectively. Those followed the August seizure of the Northern Shan state capital of Lashio by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BA). In various ethnic hinterlands, the junta’s State Administration Council’s (SAC) forces are clearly in retreat.

Now, into the convoluted conflict reporting field comes the one-year “Military Progress Report” from the exiled, anti-junta National Unity Government’s (NUG) Ministry of Defense (MoD). At first glance, the January 4 report is a crisp chronicle of a protracted conflict, one arguably being won against the coup-installed regime.

However, at multiple turns, the NUG’s tallying of 2024 military gains requires critical contextualization on how these figures are generated and what they mean for the future of armed resistance and the potential fall of the SAC.

The NUG claims their three major achievements since forming in 2021 are: 1) the creation of multiple People’s Defense Forces (PDF); 2) “establishment of controlled and liberated territories”; and 3) the overturning of the military regime’s administrative structure and “formation of people’s governance systems.”

Despite confusing the distinct difference between “control” and “governance”, there is truth to all of these claims. The report claims that the NUG derive legitimacy from two sources: “(1) De Jure: Authority granted by the people’s mandate; (2) De Facto: Authority stemming from territorial control and popular support.”

It’s not clear if the MoD fully understands both those terms, but it assumes more