Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire shows Iran a paper tiger

The Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire not only achieves Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s minimal goals of driving the Shiite Muslim militia away from Israel’s northern border and severely weakening its military capabilities but also shows its chief backer and enabler, Iran, to be a floundering paper tiger.

The truce has distanced Hezbollah from its self-declared alliance with Hamas, the Palestinian movement that triggered the war when it invaded and rampaged through southern Israel on October 7, 2023. Hamas, which has been battered by a year of intense Israeli bombing and an ongoing ground offensive, now has no ally to relieve the pressure.

In short, Lebanon’s role in the Gaza war is likely over and provides Netanyahu with a win, to use current American political parlance. At a minimum, if the ceasefire holds, Hezbollah’s exit from the field of battle provides a buffer zone within Lebanon, as the militia is forced north of the country’s Litani River.

That line was laid out via a United Nations resolution to end the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, though its eviction had never been enforced.

There are possible benefits for Israel beyond the Litani exclusion zone, at least for the immediate future. Besides limiting Hezbollah’s military value to the so-called Axis of Resistance that includes Hamas, Iraqi militias and Houthi rebels in Yemen, the accord showed Iran’s deterrent threat to be less than advertised.

In late September, Iran admitted as much. As Israel blasted southern Lebanon and Beirut with air strikes, killed field commanders and assassinated leading officials – notably supreme religious leader Hassan Nasrallah – Iran announced it would not send soldiers to help its Axis allies.

“There is no need to send extra or