Iran buckling under all bark, no bite Israel policy

On August 27, Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic of Iran, told the newly elected president, Masoud Pezeshkian, and his cabinet that talking to the enemy may be useful.

In a thinly veiled reference to Iran’s engagement with the international community – and specifically the United States – Khamenei said Iran should not pin its hopes on such engagement, but that is no reason not to hold talks with the enemy.

This is the kind of green light that Pezeshkian needs to engage again with the International Atomic Energy Agency and Western countries on Iran’s nuclear program, and to engage with international interlocutors over its heightened tensions with Israel.

This statement seems to signal a desire to walk back from the brink of an all-out war with Israel over the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh on Iranian soil in July and revert back to the mutual deterrence that had defined their relationship for years.

This, however, may not be an option given how much the region has changed over the past year.

Crossing a threshold in April

In April of this year, Israel targeted Iran’s embassy complex in Damascus, killing members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

This led to a carefully choreographed Iranian response. Iran could not ignore the Israeli attack, which the authorities condemned as an assault on Iranian sovereign territory, but did not wish to go into war with Israel.

As a result, Iran reportedly gave advance warning of its impending response, which allowed Israel and its allies to shoot down most of the 300-odd missiles and drones fired from Iran.

This response was nonetheless seen as a victory in Iran, as it demonstrated its technological capacity to reach Israel. It also