India-Maldives ties in flux as China’s growing sway causes New Delhi to fret

India, like many countries, is trying to manage China’s growing influence and “wouldn’t like to lose the Maldives completely”, said Harsh Pant, an international-relations professor at King’s College London.

“If the Maldives is trying to engage India more substantively then it is in India’s interest to reciprocate and that is what India is doing,” he said.

During the trip, India announced it would extend by another year the maturity date of a US$50 million loan to the Maldives, in the form of a treasury bill, to give Male more time to repay the debt.

Given the geopolitical considerations, analysts say the Maldives cannot completely abandon Delhi, despite Muizzu’s shift towards China and commitment to reducing his nation’s dependence on India.

China had already wielded its leverage over the Maldives to secure infrastructure projects and push to expel Indian military personnel, Pant said.

01:56

India-Maldives row escalates after disparaging remarks about Prime Minister Modi

But India’s government “sensibly played down” the issue, according to Pant, who said Delhi avoided “provocation even when Maldives tried to escalate tensions”.

“Both Male and New Delhi have to work together in the Indian Ocean,” he said. “Maldives wouldn’t like to be overdependent on any country, so addressing India’s concerns certainly is a pragmatic way to engage on the subject.”

India is supporting 65 community development projects in the Maldives, valued at 360 million Maldivian rufiyaa (US$23.4 million), according to the Indian embassy in the country.

Data from the embassy also showed that India-Maldives bilateral trade surpassed US$300 million for the first time in 2021 and stood at US$500 million in 2022, the last year for which figures were available.

Adity