Hamas leader’s killing won’t end or ease Gaza war

The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, one of the masterminds behind the group’s horrific October 7, 2023 attack on southern Israel, is no doubt a consequential moment in Israel’s year-long war against Hamas.

But is it a turning point? Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Sinwar’s killing – long a major objective of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) – would signal the “beginning of the end” of the war. But he made clear the war is not over.

In fact, Benny Gantz, a former defense minister and member of the war cabinet, said the IDF would continue to operate in Gaza “for years to come.” So, what exactly will be the impact of Sinwar’s death?

Sinwar’s death does change at least one aspect of the war. He was an iconic figure, for better or worse, for Palestinians. He was seen as someone who was taking the fight to Israel. With Sinwar still alive and Hamas hitting back at Israel’s war in Gaza, the group was actually increasing in popularity.

Opinion polling in late May showed support for Hamas among Palestinians in the Occupied Territories had reached 40%, a six-point increase from three months earlier. Support for the Palestinian Authority, which controls the West Bank, was about half that.

Sinwar’s demise changes the face of Hamas. It could be a major turning point if Hamas is unable to replace him with a leader as strong as he was.

One of the names being discussed is Khaled Mashal, the former head of Hamas’ political office, who still remains influential in the organization.

This moment offers an opportunity for a new Hamas leader to seek a ceasefire with Israel and an end to the horrific conditions in which Gazans are living. But there’s still the question of whether Sinwar’s death achieves Israel’s war