Did India plot with Maldives’ opposition to oust Muizzu or is it just a ‘conspiracy theory’?

India’s alleged role in a plan to oust Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu for his perceived pro-China stance would yield little strategic advantage and appears baseless, according to experts who cast doubt on an investigative report that New Delhi considered such a move.

Following the report, published by The Washington Post on December 30, former Maldivian leader Mohamed Nasheed expressed scepticism about the story in a social media post.

“I was unaware of any serious plot against the president, though some people always live in conspiracy. India would never back such a move, as they always support Maldives’ democracy. India has never dictated terms to us, either,” he wrote.

The Washington Post report, based on an internal document titled “Democratic Renewal Initiative”, had detailed a plan allegedly hatched by agents of India’s intelligence agency and Maldivian opposition politicians early last year to remove Muizzu from office.

The plot reportedly involved Maldivian opposition politicians proposing to bribe members of parliament to vote to impeach him. The conspirators also reportedly sought 87 million Maldivian rufiyaa (US$5.6 million) to pay off army and police officers and criminal gangs to ensure Muizzu’s removal.

The report went on to say, however, that the plotters did not manage to gather enough votes for impeachment and India did not pursue any attempt to overthrow Muizzu.