Did China just blink in the South China Sea?

Earlier this month, China declared new “baselines” around Scarborough Shoal, a large coral atoll topped by a handful of rocks barely above sea level in the South China Sea. By doing so, China reaffirmed its sovereignty claim over what has become a global flashpoint in the disputed waters.

This was a pre-calculated response to the Philippines’ enactment of new maritime laws two days earlier that aimed to safeguard its own claims over the reef and other contested parts of the sea.

This legal tit-for-tat is a continuation of the ongoing sovereignty and maritime dispute between China and the Philippines (and others) in a vital ocean area through which one-third of global trade travels.

The Philippines rejected China’s declaration as a violation of its “long-established sovereignty over the shoal.” Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said:

As the tensions continue to worsen over these claims, there is an ever-increasing risk of an at-sea conflict between the two countries.

What is the Scarborough Reef?

Scarborough Shoal is called Huangyan Dao in Chinese and Bajo de Masinloc by the Philippines. It is located in the northeast of the South China Sea, about 116 nautical miles (215 kilometers) west of the Philippine island of Luzon and 448 nautical miles (830 kilometers) south of the Chinese mainland.

At high tide, it is reduced to a few tiny islets, the tallest of which is just 3 meters above the water. However, at low tide, it is the largest coral atoll in the South China Sea.

China asserts sovereignty over all of the waters, islands, rocks and other features in the South China Sea, as well as unspecified “historic rights” within its claimed nine-dash line. This includes Scarborough Shoal.

In recent years, the reef has been the