China’s path not taken: global leadership chances

At the dawn of the 21st century, China encountered a series of decisive junctures that could have reshaped not just its destiny but that of the entire world. There was a striking series of missed opportunities and what-ifs that could have turned global events in a different direction.

Perhaps the most significant was the potential for playing a major role in international conflicts – a role Beijing could have had if only its internal political landscape and its leaders’ economic and strategic decisions had permitted China to position itself as one of the world’s preeminent powers, firmly supported by the United States and the global community.

Potential partnership in global conflicts

At the turn of the millennium, the United States found itself engaged in prolonged conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. After 2001, China collaborated with the US in Afghanistan, gaining goodwill. Yet after the early problems in Iraq in 2003-2004, China moved away, keeping distant and aloof. That was a time when China should have helped the US in any way it could, volunteering to send troops there. It would have created a strong tie between the countries.

Such an alliance had the potential for shortening the conflicts and laying the foundation for a more collaborative US-China relationship, transforming global geopolitics. Perhaps it also could have helped stabilize the Middle East, creating a peaceful land route across Eurasia and stabilizing oil prices with the normalization of production in Iraq. It might have triggered a new economic boom and possibly prevented the 2008 financial crisis.

Leadership and political reform

In the same years, China was experiencing problems of its own. Between 2002 and 2007, the transition of power from Jiang