China's imports post surprise growth in December; exports beat expectations as higher tariffs loom
China's trade data in December beat expectations by a large margin, with exporters continuing to frontload shipments as worries over additional tariffs mount, while the country's stimulus measures appear to be supporting demand in the industrial sector.
Exports in December jumped 10.7% in U.S. dollar terms from a year earlier, data from China's customs authority showed Monday, beating expectations of a 7.3% growth in a Reuters poll. That compares with a 6.7% growth in November and a spike of 12.7% in October.
Customs data showed imports rose 1.0% last month from a year earlier, reversing from the contraction in the preceding two months. Analysts had forecast imports to fall 1.5% on year. That compares with a bigger drop of 3.9% in November and 2.3% in October.
Last year, China's yuan-denominated total exports jumped 7.1% from the previous year, accelerating from a modest growth of 0.6% in 2023, customs officials said at a press conference on Monday.
China's imports last year rose 2.3%, picking up from a fall of 0.3% in 2023.
"Outbound shipments are likely to stay resilient in the near-term, supported by further gains in the global market share," Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, said in a note, thanks to a weak yuan.
The outlook for exports for the full year, however, appears less optimistic, as "potential tariff hikes could dampen momentum," said Bruce Pang, distinguished senior research fellow at the National Institution for Finance and Development.
"In the short term, import volumes are also expected to rebound further, driven by stronger demand for industrial commodities, with accelerated fiscal spending," Pang added.
China's domestic demand has been hit due to a prolonged real estate crisis, leaving the