China lacks will and way to lead the world

The “China Dream,” President Xi Jinping’s vision to restore China’s great power status, was the underlying theme of Xi’s 75th National Day speech.

Many influential individuals and policymakers in Washington agree as a matter of fact that the one of the China Dream’s goals is to displace the US-led international order and thus Washington’s global leadership and power.

As exemplified by the lack of concern for foreign affairs in Xi’s recent remarks, they’re wrong. Beijing is unwilling and—more importantly—unable to replace America on the global stage. US policy must adapt to this reality to put American interests first.

Xi’s 2017 speech to the 19th National Party Congress is often cited as evidence of Beijing’s intent to overturn America’s role in the world. In that speech, Xi envisions China as “a global leader” having “mov[ed] closer to the center stage.”

If Washington is to take Xi at his word, as some are wont to suggest, then China merely seeks a greater say in the global order commensurate with its rise in power – not world domination.

When assessing Xi’s remarks at the 20th National Party Congress in 2022, he had even less to say about global leadership – only that China should aim to have the most “comprehensive national strength” and “international influence” by mid-century.

While a stronger statement than in 2017, it is based on highly subjective measures. Comprehensive national strength is based on the Chinese “Comprehensive National Power” concept, which seeks to calculate power through qualitative and quantitative factors.

Different inputs will lead to different outputs. With China’s low productivity, brewing demographic crisis and limited natural resources, it is difficult to see how Beijing claims the top