China backing wrong side in Myanmar’s civil war

China’s rapid economic growth, accompanied by an equally swift expansion of its military over the past 30 years, has elevated it from a regional power to a global powerhouse.

The 2023 US Department of Defense Annual Report titled “Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China (PRC)” acknowledged China as the only competitor with the capacity to reshape the international order, cementing its status as a superpower.

At the heart of China’s strategy for national rejuvenation lies the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which aims to expand global transportation and trade linkages essential for its sustained growth and development. This strategy is intertwined with China’s Military-Civil Fusion (MCF) concept, ensuring that economic advancements can simultaneously bolster its military capacity, creating dual-purpose applications.

Among the six economic corridors under the BRI, the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar (BCIM) corridor—later rebranded as the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor (CMEC)—is pivotal. CMEC links China’s Yunnan province to the Chinese-built Kyaukphyu deep-sea port in Myanmar’s Rakhine state, providing direct access to the Bay of Bengal.

This corridor is a cornerstone of China’s efforts to overcome the “Malacca Dilemma,” ensuring secure energy supplies and the steady flow of natural resources vital for its economic stability. CMEC also aligns with China’s “String of Pearls” strategy—a network of logistic support points in the Indian Ocean—and complements its “Two-Ocean” strategy.

Given this, it is imperative for China to maintain Myanmar within its sphere of influence to keep CMEC operational, regardless of who governs the country. However, recent developments suggest that China may be