Campaign over, Trump must make real-world foreign policy choices

The comprehensive victory by Donald Trump and his Republican Party in the US elections on November 5 undoubtedly signals a big change in the role that America will play in the world, at least for the next four years but potentially for many more.

It no longer can be said that Trump’s presidency in 2017-21 was an aberration against the normal trend of American global leadership. For the moment, we must conclude that President Joe Biden’s partial restoration of the familiar form of American leadership was the aberration and that Trump is defining a new normal.

Yet to acknowledge this does not, unfortunately, provide an immediate means of understanding what the changed definition of American leadership will look like, nor of where it might leave America or the world at the time of the 2028 presidential elections or beyond.

For the purposes of this column, let us put to one side what Trump and his followers may do to America’s institutions of government or to its judicial system, important though that will be domestically. This will affect America’s reputation as a democracy and liberal society, but will not directly affect foreign policy except in the unforecastable eventuality that it results in internal strife.

We do know for sure what the attitude of the new Trump administration will be in foreign affairs: it will be confrontational with allies, transactional with everyone and guided by the principle of “America First” – if that slogan can really be called a principle. In many respects, the administration will also be unpredictable, as it is well known that President-elect Trump is a man who often changes his mind, even quite abruptly.

But beyond that, little is certain.

Two reasons lie behind this uncertainty. One is