Battlefield and diplomatic odds stacking against Ukraine

In May 2023, Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, embarked on a whistle-stop tour of European capitals to shore up support from his Western partners in the run-up to Ukraine’s summer offensive that year. His tour was a relative success – the subsequent offensive less so.

Fast-forward 18 months, and Zelensky has once again been visiting London, Paris, Rome and Berlin in search of Western support. This time, he sought backing for his victory plan. But the odds now are clearly stacked against Ukraine on the battlefield while Zelensky also faces an uphill struggle on the diplomatic front.

The initial plan for Zelensky and his allies had been to convene at a meeting of the Ramstein group. This is the loose configuration of some 50 countries that have supported Ukraine’s defense efforts since the start of the full-scale Russian aggression in February 2022.

With the US president, Joe Biden, scheduled to attend after a state visit to Germany, the gathering at Ramstein Air Base in Germany had been pitched at the level of heads of state and government. It was expected that there would be some big announcements of continuing support for Ukraine.

But with hurricane Milton scheduled to hit Florida, Biden was forced to cancel his trip. While Biden’s visit to Germany has apparently been rescheduled for October 18, 2024, the Ramstein meeting remains postponed.

This has deprived the Ukrainian president of the chance to pitch his victory plan to his more important allies. So he has been unable to get them to commit to the support that will be necessary to implement it.

We don’t yet know much about the Ukrainian victory plan. From what has been released or leaked, it appears to boil down to five key demands.

Zelensky wants an