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I’ve been talking about vibes a lot over the past week, so let’s talk about something a little more substantive. Trump and his movement basically have two main policy ideas: 1.) immigration restriction, and 2.) more tariffs. Let’s think about the second of these.
For some Americans, the relevant question isn’t “Which candidate will stand up to China?”, it’s “Should the US stand up to China at all?”
Once in a great while, Twitter X can still be a place for interesting discussions instead of breathless political screeching. July 29 was one of those times. I wrote a thread asking why America missed the battery revolution and got a lot of very interesting responses. So I thought I’d redo that thread as a blog post and expand on it a bit.
“I may live badly, but at least I don’t have to work to do it!” — Slacker
Throughout the 2010s, many people – including myself – treated it as a truism that manufacturing industries have faster productivity growth than service industries.
In discussions about China’s economy, the issue of demographics comes up quite a lot. In 2022, China’s population began to decrease (and coincidentally, India’s population surpassed China’s). The country’s fertility rate, which had already fallen below replacement levels decades earlier, fell again recently, to just 1.09 — one of the lowest rates in the world, and even lower than Japan.
The Economist has a good story on the rise of Chinese science. In terms of “high-impact” (i.e. highly cited) publications, China has soared past the US and Europe:
Donald Trump still leads in most polls, and betting markets give him a better than even chance of winning the election this November. So it’s important to think about what his actual policies would be, and how these would affect the outcomes that Americans care about.